Where now for Carlos Sainz?
Oh, silly season. Ever sillier, ever less seasonal and more of a sort of year-round hobbyist speculation programme for motorsport journalists that takes on all the qualities of a 10-minute long YouTube conspiracy explanation where the presenter argues themself in and out of it several times.
The gradual acceleration of the rumour mill has finally hit full throttle, however, as we come close to an announcement for two parts of the movable assembly: Hamilton and Ricciardo.
Hamilton has almost no option but to stay at Mercedes, who he could ask for a blank cheque from even more than after his last championship. Meanwhile Ricciardo has a series of fairly unappetising options.
Ferrari and Mercedes have competitive juniors they’d have to give almost no budget and who’d come with at least the promise of easily achievable peace with their top drivers, even if either does bin off a Finn. The idea they’re the likely poachers for the Australian is attractive but fundamentally fantasy for the two factory titans.
Sauber and Williams are out of the question (even as a last ditch Ricciardo — as with almost all Red Bull alumni — comes with almost no non-parent sponsors attached) and Force India and Haas are tied to their respective Power Unit suppliers. Removing a bizarre return to Toro Rosso or remaining at a Red Bull that have increasingly shown their favouritism towards his teammate, that leaves two options.
McLaren have been announced as having made a €20 million approach to Ricciardo, the sort of move that surely points to panic that they may no longer have Alonso next year if the Spaniard is buoyed enough by Le Mans to make a serious bid for the triple crown and jump ship to IndyCar.
Norris waiting in the wings is enough threat to point to a potential full team-cycle at Woking, leaving one of the main questions ‘where can Stoffel go?’
Which I asked on Twitter, the general answer being: wherever Ricciardo doesn’t. He could stay in McLaren if the Australian doesn’t take the gilded bait, he could go to Renault if Daniel doesn’t.
But there isn’t an available seat at Renault.
Last year, Red Bull swapped Carlos Sainz into the French manufacturer’s team, ousting struggling Jolyon Palmer in one of the most public contract tussles even F1 has seen for some time. Eventually, having been informed via Autosport that he’d been fired, the Englishman departed and Sainz was shifted from Toro Rosso to make space for ascendant Gasly.
At the time, it made sense — Red Bull were still clients of Renault, even if their junior team were moving to Honda power supply the following year and getting their own driver, especially one who seemed in dominant form, into the factory team was a bit of an inside coup. Toro Rosso took it none-too-kindly, incensed to have their best points-scorer stolen from them without their control and engaged in a public slanging match with the supplier that rivalled even some of the bigger team’s best.
That’s all changed now. Midway through the following season Sainz seems forgotten from the Red Bull programme — struggling to match Nico Hulkenberg at Renault he has become less a star and more a footnote, while Gasly has taken his old position in the garage and Red Bull ranking as the higher-scoring Toro Rosso driver. And a now-well-experienced Honda development driver.
The worth of Sainz to Red Bull is falling, although the acrimony of the split from Renault (who have vowed revenge against their still-current customers) means the Austrians would absolutely charge to let him out of contract to them. But he’s also out of contention for Ricciardo’s seat if he’s returned to the programme full time, Gasly having pulled ahead for that role; surely a return to The Other Scuderia can’t be forced on him?
(This is Red Bull, of course it can)
In some ways, Sainz’ best hope is that he gets fired. Other Red Bull programme members have been dropped with less ceremony and more spite after just as much investment, after all; Formula E championship leader Jean-Eric Vergne and Le Mans winning Sebastiens Buemi and Bourdais were all thrown out to go on to better.
On the other hand, Sainz does have some personal sponsorship (Estrella Galicia 0,0%) and a motorsport legacy name that means he might survive the drop to a different seat. Albeit it’s not all that likely to be Renault, after a performance that lacks some of his STR spark this year.
He is a big name, though, in his own way. And there is that other team, rumoured to be missing a Spaniard next year, with an interest in picking up a driver that knows Renault development both from Red Bull and internally to the factory team.
McLaren probably barely have the budget for Ricciardo. And if they did get him, are unlikely to know what to do with him. But if Red Bull can be persuaded to drop anyone, it’s surely lost-sock-in-the-machine Sainz, who desperately needs to find somewhere he could break out of his contract and remain in F1, if he’s going to.
Stepping back to Toro Rosso at this point isn’t an option. But if Sainz — especially given he has a close relationship with Alonso that might be possible to use for favour — could convince Zak Brown it was worth another year of Duolingo Espagnol then Woking could be the first place to catch a Red Bull dropout and keep them on the track since Vettel made his Italian escape.
(In reality, if they let Carlos go they’ll do the same thing they did to JEV and finally drop him much too late to get another race contract this season but it’s fun to speculate, eh.)
